War with Iran doesn’t seem likely

Washington is sending additional 1000 troops to the Middle East in
response to an Iranian attack on two tankers in the Gulf of Oman, off the
Iranian coast. I find it hard to believe Iran would commit
such an act, as it is in their interest to keep the peace and it is
the United States, who is beating the drum of war. Why not manufacture
a casus belli, right?

But maybe we are all mistaken. There could be others with an interest
to start a war: The Houthis, Saudi Arabia, Israel, maybe even someone
from the US, as Iran has been in the crosshairs of various US
administrations for ages, but not Trump personally.

Well, for those of us, who don’t want to see war, there is some
consolation in the fact, that US presence in the region is to small
for any larger exercise of power and that attacking with forces as
there are, would give Iran an advantage in the short run. US president
Donald Trump wouldn’t be happy if there were serious setbacks at the
very start. For the US to go it safe as possible, it would need a massive
force in the region, way more, than it has now.

After North Korea and Venezuela, we may be optimistic, that all the
bombastic talk coming from the White House, won’t amount to much and
that in time things will settle down. Sanctions seem the preferable
course of action for Trump. After all, the war in Afghanistan is not
finished yet, there are US forces in almost every corner of the world
and a war with Iran would cost a lot. Something, that would not
benefit him at the next presidential elections in 2020.

So, let us hope for the best.